Blanchard and Company exec shares golden insights in new Forbes feature By Blanchard | June
14, 2011
With gold headed to $2,000, "there is still a good
opportunity for new investors to get into the market,"
says David Beahm
Excerpted here, a new Forbes magazine feature titled "Investing
in Gold: Precious Stability" by Patrick Marr offers
a valuable overview of the factors driving gold's 10-year
(and counting) bull market - and also spotlights key insights
from Blanchard and Company's David Beahm, vice president
of marketing and economic research:
Savvy investors recognize three significant factors affecting
global markets today: the rise of the economic might of
China and India; high national debt levels among Western
economies, including the U.S.; and the sharp rise in commodity
prices, particularly oil and crops. What many investors
may not know is that gold is an exceptional investment to
capitalize on in each of these trends.
"The combination of limited supply and strong demand
for physical gold, weakness in the dollar and expectations
for higher inflation all are positives for gold investors,"
says Thomas K. Anderson, global head of the ETF Strategy
and Research Group at State Street Global Advisors.
Indeed, it is those three factors that have powered gold
over the past decade, a period when the asset has returned
414%, compared to 15% for the NYSE Composite. That move,
from $273 an ounce at the start of 2001 to $1,405 at the
end of 2010-- and more recently to over $1,500 -- has some
investors, weary of stock market bubbles, feeling they have
already missed their opportunity. That's not the case when
you understand the fundamentals behind gold's continuing
ascent, says Randall Oliphant, Executive Chairman of New
Gold, an intermediate-sized gold mining company. For one,
consumers in China and India have a ravenous appetite for
keeping their personal wealth in gold. "Having consumers
that get richer and richer is good for us. Last year, India
was 32% of global gold consumption, and this year China
is expected to overtake India," Oliphant explains.
Add to the bullishness the fact that central banks need
to grow their reserves along with their economies. Both
India and China are heavily invested in U.S. dollars and
euros and are hesitant to add more of either currency, given
the rising government debt loads of each. Alternative currencies,
such as Canadian dollars, Australian dollars and Swiss francs,
simply aren't large enough to be significant holdings, so
central bankers turn to gold.
Recall too that a decade ago, when gold was mired near
its lowest price ever, central banks were heavy net sellers
of gold. That reversed itself in 2010, according to the
World Gold Council, which noted "a paradigm shift in
the official sector, where central banks became net purchasers
of gold for the first time in 21 years," in its Q4
2010 demand report. That shift appears to be accelerating,
most recently with Mexico, Russia and Thailand buying up
$6 billion of gold as it broke over $1,500 an ounce. The
potential for central bank-buying to continue is strong.
Central banks let gold slip to just 10% of their assets
of late, down from 80% in 1980.
That is just one reason gold professionals project the
metal has room to grow further. "We believe gold is
going to get to at least the $2,300 level before it takes
a breather. That is based on the $850 peak it hit in 1980,
which adjusted into today's dollars is over $2,300,"
explains David Beahm, Vice President of Blanchard Gold,
one of the largest physical gold brokers in the U.S. "There
is still a good opportunity for new investors to get into
the market."
Investors worldwide are returning to gold as the historic
hedge against inflation, in addition to the expanding demand
from emerging economies and central banks. Part of this
is in anticipation of inflation, given the 92% debt-to-GDP
ratio in the U.S. and the also-high 80% debt-to-GDP ratio
of the euro zone economies. Unlike currencies, the supply
of gold isn't easily expanded: All of the gold mined in
history -- 177,000 tons -- would fit inside four Olympic-sized
swimming pools. The current inflation in the cost of commodities
is drawing interest in gold as a hedge as well: Most energy
and food commodities such as oil and corn are nearing record-high
price levels.
However, keep in mind that gold is more than just an investment
vehicle. It is also a commodity with its own inherent demand.
In fact, gold investors provide just 35% of total global
demand; jewelry accounts for the majority -- 54% in 2010
-- and technology, such as electronics and dental applications,
contribute 11%.
Physical Gold
Many investors opt to own physical gold bullion itself,
through coins and bars. The best route to take is with a
reputable broker, who would lock in a price over the phone
and then securely deliver the bullion to you, as well as
buy gold on an agreed-upon price subject to your delivery
of the gold. The advantage of owning physical gold is that
it shields you from the risks that come along with stocks
and fund investments, including market risk, political risk
in countries where mines are located, and the risk of corporate
mismanagement. However, bullion offers less liquidity than
stocks and brings with it the need for adequate storage
and security. ...
However you invest in gold, the poorest decision would
be not to, given the market fundamentals and the natural
protection against market volatility and inflation gold
offers, adds Blanchard Gold's Beahm. "Gold is portfolio
protection, a way to protect your wealth, a way to deal
with your wealth, and a way to diversify out of paper assets."