China's Currency Reserves Rise to Record, Domestic Lending Exceeds Target By Bloomberg News
- Jan 11, 2011 3:38 AM ET
China’s foreign-exchange reserves
climbed by a record last quarter and lending exceeded the
government’s annual target, increasing pressure on
the central bank to tighten policies to rein in liquidity
and inflation.
The currency holdings, reported by the central
bank on its website today, rose by $199 billion to $2.85
trillion, the biggest quarterly gain since Bloomberg data
began in 1996. Full- year yuan-denominated lending of 7.95
trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion) compared with a target of
7.5 trillion yuan.
The central bank may need to raise benchmark
interest rates, boost reserve requirements for lenders and
allow faster yuan appreciation, economists from Standard
Chartered Plc and Credit Agricole CIB said. Policy makers
may also experiment with more ways of encouraging outflows
of capital, after expanding a program for exporters to park
revenue overseas and letting some citizens invest directly
abroad.
“All eyes are going to be on what
new policies the central bank can bring to the table,”
said Jinny Yan, a Shanghai-based economist at Standard Chartered.
“But there’s still going to be a lot of excess
liquidity in the market in the first half of the year.”
Yan forecasts three interest-rate increases
this year with the first this quarter. Citigroup Inc. said
today that the central bank may announce rate and reserve-requirement
increases before or during a Lunar New Year holiday starting
Feb. 2, to take effect afterwards.
Yuan Strengthens
The level of China’s currency holdings
is a world record.
The Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.4
percent higher, paring a decline in the past year of about
13 percent. The yuan strengthened amid speculation that
the central bank will allow gains ahead of President Hu
Jintao’s visit to the U.S. next week. The currency
climbed 0.3 percent to 6.6204 per dollar, the biggest jump
since Dec. 30, as of 3:40 p.m. in Shanghai.
Gains in China’s currency holdings
underscore global economic imbalances and claims that the
yuan is undervalued, topics President Barack Obama has put
on the agenda for his Jan. 19 meeting with counterpart Hu
in Washington. The yuan has climbed about 3 percent against
the dollar since officials scrapped in June last year a
peg which had been in place since the global financial crisis.
China will increase the currency’s
flexibility this year to cut the trade surplus and reduce
inflationary pressure, central bank Deputy Governor Yi Gang
said in China Forex magazine.
Hot Money
Today’s data may indicate a “huge
surge” in inflows of hot money, or speculative capital,
according to Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Hong Kong-based economist
at Credit Agricole. He estimated the current-account surplus
contributed about 40 percent of last quarter’s increase.
China yesterday reported a $13.1 billion trade surplus for
December, the smallest in eight months, according to customs
data.
Economists’ median estimate was for
a $112 billion gain in the reserves after a $194 billion
increase between July and September. China’s holdings
may reach $3 trillion by June 30, UBS AG estimates.
The currency regulator is seeking to curb
inflows of cash from investors attracted by China’s
growth and the prospects for higher rates and a stronger
currency. Officials are also testing measures to encourage
Chinese businesses and investors to have more money offshore.
Investment Channels
A program to allow exporters to park revenue
in overseas accounts was expanded nationwide from Jan. 1.
The government has also allowed citizens in the eastern
city of Wenzhou to make direct investments overseas, according
to a Jan. 7 local government statement.
M2, the broadest measure of money supply,
rose 19.7 percent in December from a year earlier, the central
bank said today, the fastest pace since May. Economists’
median estimate was for a 19 percent increase. New local-currency
lending was a higher- than-estimated 480.7 billion yuan
in December.
“Liquidity in the banking system will
be more than abundant and the central bank needs to tighten
more aggressively,” said Kowalczyk. He estimates reserve
requirements will climb 150 basis points, with benchmark
interest rates jumping 50 basis points, by the end of June.
For the biggest banks, ratios stand at 18.5
percent, excluding any temporary increases not publicly
announced. The key one-year lending rate is 5.81 percent.
Bank Lending
Officials will use differentiated reserve
ratios to improve liquidity management, Governor Zhou Xiaochuan
said in an interview published by the central bank’s
China Finance magazine on Jan. 4. The system involves setting
separate requirements for lenders according to their balance
sheets.
The amount of cash in the economy could
surge this quarter because of maturing central bank bills
and the tendency for bank lending to be highest in the early
months.
The People’s Bank of China will have
1.2 trillion yuan of bills issued through open-market operations
falling due in the first quarter and 869 billion yuan in
the second quarter, Kowalczyk estimated. Standard Chartered’s
Yan forecast new lending in January could amount to 1 trillion
yuan while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says the figure could
be higher.
“This is going to be a challenge for
the PBOC to keep control over lending,” said Helen
Qiao, a Beijing-based economist with Goldman Sachs. “But
the so-called dynamic differential reserve requirement will
act as a threat to any bank that extends too much lending
that they will be punished.”
China’s four biggest banks may need
to limit the growth in overall yuan lending to about 14
percent this year to avoid being punished under this new
system, three people with knowledge of the matter said today.
Outstanding local-currency credit rose 19.9 percent last
year.
Zhou raised banks’ reserve ratios
six times last year and boosted interest rates twice in
the fourth quarter. The government also cracked down on
property speculation after record lending helped the economy
recover from the global financial crisis.