Special report: China flexed its muscles using U.S. Treasuries By Emily Flitter
| Thu Feb 17, 10:21 am ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Confidential diplomatic cables
from the U.S. embassies in Beijing and Hong Kong lay bare
China's growing influence as America's largest creditor.
As the U.S. Federal Reserve grappled with the aftershocks
of financial crisis, the Chinese, like many others, suffered
huge losses from their investments in American financial
firms -- from Lehman Brothers to the Primary Reserve Fund,
the money market fund that broke the buck.
The cables, obtained by WikiLeaks, show that escalating
Chinese pressure prompted a procession of soothing visits
from the U.S.Treasury Department. In one striking instance,
a top Chinese money manager directly asked U.S. Treasury
Secretary Timothy Geithner for a favor.
In June, 2009, the head of China's powerful sovereign wealth
fund met with Geithner and requested that he lean on regulators
at the U.S. Federal Reserve to speed up the approval of
its $1.2 billion investment in Morgan Stanley, according
to the cables, which were provided to Reuters by a third
party.
Although the cables do not mention if Geithner took any
action, China's deal to buy Morgan Stanley shares was announced
the very next day.
The two Treasury officials to whom the cables were addressed,
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Asia Robert Dohner and Deputy
Assistant Secretary for International Monetary and Financial
Policy Mark Sobel, declined through a spokesperson to comment
for this story. The State Department also declined to comment.
China is America's biggest foreign lender, playing a crucial
role in the U.S.Treasury auctions that allow Washington
to borrow what it needs to keep its government running.
At the same time, the United States is China's top export
destination: America's trade deficit with the nation reached
a record $273.1 billion in 2010. Most economists describe
the two economies as co-dependent.
The concern in certain influential Washington and Wall
Street circles is that Beijing would leverage its position
as the main enabler of U.S. overspending. And the cables
provide a glimpse into how much politics inform relations
between the world's two largest economies.
One cable cites Chinese money managers expressing concern
that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan -- a major, longstanding
irritant in the relationship -- could sour the Chinese public
on Treasury purchases.
The subject of Taiwan came up during an October 9, 2008
meeting the U.S. financial attache's office had with Liu
Jiahua, Deputy Director General of China's foreign currency
reserve manager, the secretive behemoth known as the State
Administration for Foreign Exchange, or SAFE.
"Liu observed that the recent U.S. announcement of
another arms sale to Taiwan made it more difficult for the
Chinese government to explain its policies supportive of
the U.S. to the Chinese public," reads an account of
his comments in one of the cables.
The cables also indicate a high level of confidence among
the Americans that China can't entirely stop buying U.S.
debt, a sentiment shared by most economists who describe
the dynamic as a form of mutually assured financial destruction.
But the cables do show that China can and will pull back,
with financial repercussions. In the spring of 2009, with
U.S.-China financial tensions running especially high, China's
Treasury holdings fell to around $764 billion, down from
nearly $900 billion. In July, after tensions between the
two nations mostly subsided, its holdings rose to a record
$940 billion.
During the financial turmoil, the cables show that Beijing
also shifted its portfolio away from longer-term Treasury
notes, which helped drive up America's long-term borrowing
costs.
NOT TOO BIG TO FAIL
The collapse of Lehman had a swift and powerful impact
on SAFE. "Several interlocutors have told us that Lehman
was a counterparty to SAFE in financial transactions and
as a result SAFE suffered large losses when Lehman collapsed,"
Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing Dan
Piccuta wrote in a cable to Washington on March 20, 2009.
The hit to its balance sheet is likely what prompted a
Chinese official to tell a U.S. diplomat months earlier
that SAFE was afraid to re-enter the U.S. repo market --
that is, it was reluctant to resume lending its short-term
Treasuries to counterparties wanting to use them as collateral
in cash loans.
On October 9, 2008, officials from the U.S. embassy's office
of the financial attache in Beijing met with SAFE Deputy
Director General Liu Jiahua. "SAFE is very concerned
over the danger involved in lending U.S. Treasuries to U.S.
financial institutions in the repurchase agreement market,"
Liu said.
Liu said SAFE's confidence in U.S. banks had been shaken.
SAFE had exited the repo market, which is a way for corporations
and financial institutions to borrow overnight.
The cable continues, "Liu remained noncommittal on
the possible resumption of lending, but agreed that SAFE
had sufficient confidence in those institutions and would
consider a system whereby the Federal Reserve or other U.S.
government agency would act as a guarantor."
Public opinion clearly rattled China's financial leaders.
One cable shows Liu citing an internet discussion forum,
saying "the Chinese leadership must pay close attention
to public opinion in forming policies."
The U.S. government does not appear to have offered the
Chinese a special setup guaranteeing U.S. banks. Instead,
the cables show, American diplomats reassured the Chinese
by pointing out that Washington had infused banks' balance
sheets with $700 billion in fresh capital, effectively propping
up the banking system.
FANNIE AND FREDDIE, GUARANTEED OR NOT
China holds hundreds of billions of dollars in debt issued
by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the housing agencies known
as Government Sponsored Entities, or GSEs.
Like many other investors, it purchased agency debt before
the crisis with the expectation that Fannie and Freddie
were implicitly backed by the U.S. government.
In September 2008, when the Treasury Department took control
of the two GSEs, SAFE officials grew alarmed, the cables
show. Suggestions that senior GSE debt holders would have
to take a haircut sparked a public outcry in China. The
media warned that the government's currency manager faced
monstrous losses similar to those suffered earlier by the
nation's sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corp.,
after its investments in U.S. financial institutions blew
up.
Media outlets had already heavily criticized the government
for CIC's losses -- a Financial Times story circulated by
outlets such as China Daily speculated that CIC had lost
$80 billion of the government's foreign reserves. In late
2008 Chinese newspapers routinely ran headlines with the
words "Fannie Mae" and "Freddie Mac"
spelled out in English.
To defuse the situation, the Treasury Department sent Undersecretary
for International Affairs David McCormick to Beijing for
two days in October 2008. The gesture went over well.
"All of Undersecretary McCormick's counterparts appeared
to appreciate his willingness to come to Beijing in the
midst of a financial crisis," Piccuta wrote in a cable
dated October 29, 2008. "Interlocutors stressed that
unless leaders' concerns about the viability of banks and
U.S. government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) are assuaged,
lower-level officials will be constrained from taking on
greater counter-party risks."
The cables show McCormick trying to reassure the Chinese.
"In each meeting, Undersecretary McCormick emphasized
that even though the U.S. government did not explicitly
guarantee GSE debt, it effectively did so by committing
to inject up to $100 billion of equity in each institution
to avoid insolvency and that this contractual commitment
would remain for the life of these institutions," Piccuta
wrote.
PACIFIC RIFT
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a program to buy agency
mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries in early 2009
to help flood the financial system with liquidity and stop
Treasury yields from rising. But at first the purchases
had very little impact on yields, which climbed steadily
while the Treasury Department's auctions of new debt wobbled.
In China, top officials began publicly criticizing the
inflationary side-effects of the Fed's program. They said
the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet would devalue their
Treasury holdings -- and indeed, the Chinese public watched
as Treasury yields rose and the older debt the Chinese had
sank in value.
On March 13, 2009, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said at a
press conference he was "concerned" about the
security of China's investments in U.S. Treasuries. The
March 20 cable, titled "Premier Wen's comments on U.S.
Treasuries: Protect China's investments," documents
a score of Chinese officials discussing their worries about
U.S. Treasuries and the potential consequences of their
uncertainty.
One economist at Caijing Magazine, which diplomats described
as a "respected" Chinese outlet, told U.S. officials
in late February "there has been a 'huge debate' within
the government about China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries."
According to the cable, the Chinese economist told U.S.
embassy officials that "SAFE has been shifting its
portfolio toward shorter-term assets to reduce the risk
of capital losses from higher inflation."
That information dovetailed with data, released many months
later, showing the Chinese had indeed sold longer-dated
Treasuries and bought more T-bills, which surged to $210
billion by May 2009. The move likely contributed to the
rise in long-term yields.
GEITHNER IN BEIJING
Tensions remained high during Geithner's visit to China
-- his first as Treasury Secretary -- on June 1 and 2, 2009.
Geithner, who has lived in China and other parts of Asia
and holds a master's in East Asian studies, met with top
Chinese officials, including the head of CIC, China's $200
billion sovereign wealth fund, and the ministers of finance
and commerce.
The trip had been scheduled for months with a predictable
agenda, but the meetings were full of spontaneous discussion
and frank complaints from the Chinese, the cables reveal.
Xie Xuren, China's minister of finance, met with Geithner
on June 1 and "expressed concern about the potential
for inflation and the long-term sustainability of U.S. budget
deficits," according to a cable detailing Geithner's
visit, dated June 17, 2009.
The next day, June 2, CIC Chairman Lou Jiwei confided in
Geithner that his fund had halted all new investments in
2008 after the financial crisis broke out, but had since
scoped out a new stake in Morgan Stanley, the U.S. investment
bank.
At the time of Geithner's visit, Morgan Stanley was planning
a new share issue to raise funds to repay the government
for the money it received during the financial crisis.
"Lou asked if it would be possible for the Fed to
expedite approval of CIC's request that this investment
be exempted from restrictions on investment by bank holding
companies, as the customary two-week process for considering
such exemption requests is too long to allow CIC to take
advantage of this opportunity," according to the cable.
There's no record in the cable of how Geithner responded,
but it was only a day later, on June 3, that CIC announced
plans to purchase $1.2 billion in Morgan Stanley shares.
A spokesperson for the Fed said in the instance of the
June 3 CIC investment, no application for an exemption was
made to the Federal Reserve Board.
(Additional reporting by Kristina Cooke and Mark Hosenball;
Editing by Jim Impoco and Claudia Parsons).