Coins Stay Strong as Stock Market Routed By
David L. Ganz, Numismatic News
October 16, 2008
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
October plummet and the worldwide consequences of Lehman Brothers
filing for bankruptcy and its stock going from a 52-week high
of more than $50 to a low of about eight cents a share, has
brought unparalleled activity in the numismatic market. It
has also in the face of wild price swings made rare coins
appear to be the pillar of stability.
It also has brought out consultants and commentators
involved heavily in the rare coin market, and given the impression
that gold remains an object much admired as well as feared
- the ultimate hedge against inflation and runaway tangible
assets performance, and a solid, not disjointed market.
In a record week of market trading Oct. 6-10,
American corporations have lost equity of over $11 trillion.
The amount is estimated by CBS radio and seems reasonably
accurate. At the same time, gold has marched forward and there
is solid demand for bullion as well as numismatic products.
As the accompanying charts show, the Dow has
lost a lot of ground. Gold acted protectively and has been
a steady riser; silver and platinum have declined from 2008
heights.
Tangible assets in general did well in the
past six months. Farm land, for example, held its own according
to Iowa State University professor Michael Duffy, who maintains
a farmland Web site that has captured the spirit of the challenge.
"[T]he latest surveys, as
of September, still showed a 17 percent year-to-year increase
in value [for farm land]. As for now, I think it has stabilized.
Whether or not it has dropped I can't say for sure,"
Duffy declared in an Oct. 7 e-mail.
Duffy's opinion is based on old, dirty data;
his response today, "We are starting our survey the 1st
of Nov. My gut feeling is that it has stabilized but not started
dropping. Grain prices are off and input costs are through
the roof."
Dennis Baker's NumisMedia constantly monitors
price, and supplied the citations and other problems in a
less than ideal situation. I asked Baker if he could update
some gold coins for a "daily" response, but his
answer is that the market is not homogeneous, prices are not
only not uniform, but it is impossible to give back the reliable
data that the 50+ breakfast table generation usually sees
in the financial pages of daily newspapers because of a clear
problem in accumulating reliable data.
Excerpts from a long e-mail with Baker: "All
[price guide] prices are recycled every three weeks. However,
we update some series intermittently between this period.
You get the wholesale booklets from us ... Take a look at
the specific prices from the HD booklets over the last several
weeks and see how they look."
Baker's overall comment: "Initially,
$20s went down and there were lots of supplies with no buyers.
Then when all hell broke loose, this is when premiums started
to increase rapidly ..."
I had an idea of tracking $20
gold pieces against the market. Baker suggested it was impractical,
given the "free market" already established: "I
cannot give you prices for $20s on a daily basis. We don't
track them daily. And I don't have the time to try and develop
something for you," Baker said. Maybe next time.
Baker's views may be synthesized with these
concluding comments: "Money is the strength of the coin
business and there has never been a more opportunistic time
to purchase rare coins." He's right about that.
His final word: "Whether buyers are acquiring
numismatic coins or bullion-related modern coins, dealers
are noticing a tremendous increase in business currently taking
place. Buyers want physical coins in their hands because they
do not trust paper stock certificates."
Baker was able to give me pricing for what
represented the list found originally in a Salomon Brothers
survey, back when it was a investment company embarrassment.
The Oct. 9 pricing makes this column more than an estimate
- it jumps up to a more effective research tool.
The value of the Salomon charts
derives from the fact that old Salomon Brothers information
sheets knew nothing of these expansion plans, yet is flexible
enough to be usable in 2008, even if the data harvesting began
in earnest after 1978.
The contents of the portfolio was never revealed
by Salomon but was revealed in a book by Hans M.F. Schulman
and Neil S. Berman in 1986. Coin & Currency Institute
published a new analysis by Berman and Silvano DiGenova in
2007.
Baker's October 2008 price changes show that
this year, up $13,380 for year to date and about $2,500 for
the past quarter.
Salomon created an investment analysis model
using a small number of just 20 silver and copper coins, some
Proof-63 but mostly choice uncirculated specimens. (No gold
was included because investment was too new - not until December
31, 1974, was private gold ownership permitted in the U.S.
after a shut-down of more than 40 years.
Surprising results when 20 coins were factored
into a portfolio: it outpaced the equities market. Using the
same 1976 starting point, it would have cost about $33,000
to assemble a holding of each of the coins. The following
year, 1977, showed a 5.61 percent gain. Not rocket gains,
but when measured against a flat market, impressive. The following
year, a 4.17 percent gain and in 1979, the portfolio acquisition
cost jumped to $43,000 and a gain of more than 19 percent.
In the short span of three years,
an average exceeding 8 percent annually was achieved.
The remarkable feat of holding its own as
the Dow stumbles and other stocks tumble shows how many are
viewing the Dow. The reasons why tangible assets such as coins
are more than holding their own is covered in the next report.