Crisis
of the Government Party by Patrick J. Buchanan
- January 30, 2010
President
Obama is in a dilemma from which there appears to be no easy
or early escape.
Democrats are the Party of Government. They feed it, and
it feeds them. The larger government grows, the more agencies
that are created, the more bureaucrats who are hired, the
more people who become beneficiaries, the more deeply entrenched
in power the Party of Government becomes.
At the local, state and federal level, there are 19 million
to 20 million government employees. And if one takes only
Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps and earned
income tax credits, we are talking of scores of millions who
depend on government checks for the necessities of their daily
life.
These vast armies of voters - these tens of millions of government
employees and scores of millions of government beneficiaries
- are the big battalions of the Party of Government. They
provide implacable resistance to any party that pledges to
cut or curtail government. For they are fighting for their
livelihood. And here is where Obama's dilemma arises.
The progressives thought that with the takeover of both houses
of Congress by veto-proof Democratic majorities, and the election
of the most progressive of the candidates in the Democratic
primaries save Dennis Kucinich, a new Progressive Era was
at hand.
Another New Deal, another Great Society. And early passage
of a stimulus package of $787 billion, nearly 6 percent of
the entire economy packed into a single bill, seemed to confirm
that happy days were here again.
But, at the same time, the federal takeover of AIG, General
Motors and Chrysler and the bailouts of Fannie, Freddie and
the Wall Street banks were igniting a Perot-style prairie
fire that manifested itself in Tea Party rallies in the spring
and town-hall protests in August.
Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi denounced these folks as "evil-mongers"
engaged in the "un-American" activity of shouting
down Democrats - though, when college radicals do it to conservatives,
it is called "heckling" and the conservatives are
instructed that they "just do not understand the First
Amendment."
Came November, Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey
showed that the grass-roots rebellion was real and broad-based.
This was confirmed by Scott Brown's astonishing upset in Massachusetts,
where a state Obama won by 26 points went Republican by 6
points, with Brown capturing a Senate seat held by the Kennedy
brothers since 1952. Talk about a fire bell in the night.
Obama's dilemma, evident in his State of the Union, is that
the progressives, who were indispensable to his victories
over Hillary, now feel betrayed, especially with apparent
abandonment of health insurance reform, while conservative
Democrats and independents, who were indispensable in giving
Obama his November victory, are angry and alienated and disposed
to vote Republican to stop what they see as America's plunge
into socialism.
The non-negotiable demands of these two essential elements
of Obama's coalition are in irreconcilable conflict. Obama
tried to mollify both in his address to Congress by emphasizing
aspects of his agenda that appeal to each. Thus the progressives
were promised an end to the "Don't ask, don't tell"
policy on gays in the military, while Tea Party and town-hall
activists got a partial freeze on federal spending and promises
of nuclear power, clean coal and offshore drilling.
Obama's problem: He can end up satisfying no one and angering
everyone. John McCain has already denounced Obama's call for
open homosexuality in the military, a position that will resonate
with Middle America, while House Democrats are appalled the
Pentagon will be exempt from budget caps imposed on social
programs.
Arthur Laffer has pointed up the burgeoning crisis Obama and
the progressives confront. Today, state, local and federal
government spending consumes 38 percent of the gross domestic
product. Federal spending alone is 27 percent.
"If you total what the government takes in the income
tax, corporate tax, Social Security taxes, capital gains taxes,"
says Laffer, "all of that adds up to $2.2 trillion in
tax receipts, and they spent $3.5 trillion."
In 2009, we had a deficit of $1.4 trillion, 10 percent of
GDP. The most conservative estimate for this year is a deficit
of $1.35 trillion, more than 9 percent of GDP.
Two questions.
With the public debt surging as a share of GDP, and talk
of a debt default by the United States, how can Obama create
or expand the social programs as progressives demand? And
with the deficit running above 9 percent of GDP, how - even
if the economy starts to grow - can you close this without
raising taxes from 18 percent of GDP to 22 percent or 23 percent?
That would be an added tax hike of $560 billion to $700 billion
- a year.
That kind of hit on the private sector could kill a recovery,
just as Herbert Hoover and FDR did in the early 1930s.