Fears about debt send gold price to record By STAN CHOE - AP
Business Writer | AP – Tue, Jul 19, 2011
NEW YORK (AP) — Gold's reputation as a safe place
for your money sent it above $1,600 for the first time.
Investors are worried about debt problems on both sides
of the Atlantic. So they bid gold up $12.30 an ounce Monday
to settle at $1,602.40. That's a record for the market price
for gold, but below its 1980 peak after adjusting for inflation.
An ounce of gold at that time cost $850, or about $2,400
in today's dollars.
Gold is looking better by the day because debt problems
in the U.S. and Europe are making two other so-called safe
havens, the dollar and the euro, seem shaky. The U.S. could
default on its debt on Aug. 2 if Congress and the White
House don't agree to raise the country's borrowing limit.
In Europe, investors worry that Greece may default. Countries
including Italy, Spain and Ireland are also struggling to
pay their bills. Defaults could mean losses for the banks
that own bonds issued by those countries, and that could
trigger widespread disruption in financial markets.
Why own gold? It's because gold has a long history as a
way of preserving wealth, said Tom Winmill, portfolio manager
of the $96 million Midas Fund. The fund owns gold and stocks
in gold mines. "In 6,000 years, gold is one of the
very few assets that have never gone to zero." Winmill
expects gold to rise to $1,800 by the end of 2012.
Investors believe gold is safe because it doesn't depend
on a government's ability to repay a bond, like a Treasury
or a Greek note. Neither do other commodities like crude
oil, which has the added use of powering automobiles. "But
it's much easier to pick up a bar of gold than a swimming
pool of oil," said James Steel, an analyst with HSBC.
Gold rose 21 percent in dollar terms in the 12 months through
June 30, according to the World Gold Council, an industry
group. It rose against other currencies, too: up 2.2 percent
in euros, 10.4 percent in Japanese yen and 16.5 percent
in Indian rupees. But gold fell 5.5 percent against the
Swiss franc, which is seen as one of the world's safest
currencies.
Gold's rise has accelerated in the last two weeks: Monday
was its 10th straight day of gains after it closed at $1,482.60
July 1. Gold has also steadily risen since the start of
2009, when it cost $880. The Federal Reserve has kept short-term
interest rates at a record low of nearly zero since December
2008. Low interest rates weaken the appeal of the dollar,
and that in turn sends gold higher.
Investors are behind much of the increase in the price
of gold. Demand from investors rose 26 percent in the first
quarter from a year earlier, according to industry data.
Demand for gold from dentists for crowns and from companies
for use in electronics was flat. Demand for gold in jewelry
rose 7 percent.
The amount of gold held by exchange-traded funds and similar
investments is at a record, according to Barclays Capital.
Exchange-traded funds, also known as ETFs, trade like stocks
and are a way for investors to own gold without having to
store and insure actual gold bars or coins.
But much of that demand has been from speculative investors,
such as hedge funds, said Jon Nadler, senior metals analyst
with Kitco Metals. Gold could plunge — if investors
regain their confidence that the U.S. won't default and
that the 27-nation European Union won't be threatened by
the region's debt problems.
"I wish this was all about the man on the street,
pension funds, but it's not," Nadler said. "It's
the type of player that tends to get up at the very next
opportunity to find something hot elsewhere. Will all this
end in tears?" Quite likely yes, because I see that
the demise of the European Union and the United States as
a debt entity is really not in the cards."