Calls
grow to supplant dollar as global currency
France joins China, India and
Russia in calling for a new reserve standard on the eve of
the G8 summit By KARIM BARDEESY
- 00:00 EDT Monday, July 06, 2009
The
call to find an alternative to the U.S dollar as the global
reserve currency is gaining momentum as France joined calls
by China, India and Russia for a review of the world's currency
practices.
French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde challenged the
dollar's supremacy "in a world that has changed because
of the crisis and the growing role of emerging countries."
The questioning of the U.S. dollar as the key currency for
central banks by a leader of a major European economy gives
renewed life to the issue at this week's Group of Eight summit
meeting in L'Aquila, Italy. The U.S. dollar has long served
as the dominant medium of exchange, and tends to dominate
the official money reserves that countries hold through their
governments and at their central banks.
In the first quarter of 2009, 65 per cent of the world's
allocated foreign exchange holdings were held in U.S. dollars,
according to the International Monetary Fund. That's the highest
in seven quarters.
The push for an alternative is being driven in large part
by concern over the weakened state of the U.S. economy.
The country is forecasting fiscal deficits for the next decade.
That's leading large holders of U.S. debt such as China to
worry that the U.S. dollar may not be as safe as it once was.
In addition, the dollar has been volatile on international
currency markets, and the U.S. is running ongoing trade deficits.
Diversification would likely take years, because unwinding
large reserve positions of U.S. dollars too quickly would
devalue them. And despite concerns about the greenback, it
has maintained its international appeal, in part because investors
need the value of their U.S. dollar holdings to stay high.
With the U.S. continuing to require willing lenders to fund
deficits, the situation has become what top Barack Obama economic
adviser Lawrence Summers once dubbed "a kind of balance
of financial terror."
That U.S. Treasury bills appreciated in the immediate wake
of the financial crisis was proof of the dollar's strength,
as "people fled to a stable place," said Paul Wachtel,
a professor at New York University.
Still, the risk of a move away from the greenback is not
without precedent, said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist
of TD Securities. "The U.S. is a bit complacent about
this. Most U.S. officials appear confident there will be no
quick switch away from the dollar. But we have seen before,
with the decline of the pound, that these things can happen
quickly, in the space of years."
Recent comments may be as much about politics as economics.
Large developing countries are seeking a greater role at
the International Monetary Fund. China controls only 3.66
per cent of the votes at the body, despite being the world's
third-largest economy.
"A little bit of nationalism, a little bit of searching
for someone to blame for the economic crisis," Prof.
Wachtel said. "Plus, it's a changing world: diversification
of reserves might make sense."
Canada and Japan both reaffirmed their support for the greenback
this week.
"It's an issue that we have not addressed, other than
to say that in the midst of what is still a significant global
recession, it's important that we aim for stability,"
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Friday. "The stability
has been based on the U.S. dollar as the global currency."
Whether and how this will actually come up at the G8 summit
remains unclear. Russia is a G8 member, and China and India
are set to join the discussions on the second day of the three-day
meeting, but all are playing down the prospect of formal talks
just yet.
Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister He Yafei said yesterday: "You
may have heard comments, opinions from academic circles about
the idea of establishing a super sovereign currency. This
is all, I believe, now a discussion among academics. It is
not the position of the Chinese government."
The Chinese central bank, the world's largest external holder
of U.S. debt, reiterated its call for a new international
reserve currency in a policy review published last week. It
has proposed an International Monetary Fund-created unit called
Special Drawing Rights as an alternative reserve currency.
Regardless of what happens at the G8 summit, some analysts
expect a diversification in large countries' currency practices.
Alternatives like the euro, yen, Chinese yuan, and Special
Drawing Rights all have drawbacks, said Benjamin Cohen of
the University of California-Santa Barbara. "A more fragmented
currency system seems in the offing, with much competition
and no money clearly dominant," Prof. Cohen said.