Gold
fever returns CBC
News - Last Updated: Monday, October 19, 2009 | 8:01 AM ET
Many
people can still recall the long lineups at bullion dealers
and coin sellers in late 1979 and early 1980 as hopeful speculators
jumped on the gold bandwagon. Gold reached a record $850 US
an ounce back then as interest rates and inflation headed
well into double-digit territory.
But the excitement didn't take long to fade, and bullion
began a long slide to just $255 an ounce by early 2001. (All
prices in U.S. dollars.) Gold's next major ride up began in
2005, when it broke above the $500 level for the first time
since the early 1980s. From there, it was a steady climb higher.
Gold futures hit $600 an ounce in April 2006, $700 in May
2006 and $800 in October 2007. In January 2008, gold finally
traded above the record $850 level of 28 years earlier. By
March 2008, it reached and surpassed $1,000 an ounce before
retreating back below $800 later in the year.
But
the financial crisis and the slumping U.S. dollar soon had
bullion re-testing those record highs. By October 2009, gold
was trading at $1,075 an ounce.
Of course, that's still a long way from a real record high,
once inflation is taken into account (gold would need to trade
at $2,300 an ounce to match the buying power of $850 of 1980).
But a quadrupling of gold prices in eight years and a doubling
in four has certainly opened a lot of eyes.
A
brief history of gold
Gold has been a desirable and valued commodity since before
recorded history. Archaeologists have discovered stashes of
gold jewelry dating back to 3000 B.C. in what is now southern
Iraq. Ancient Egyptians buried their rulers with elaborate
gold adornments, such as the gold mask, sarcophagus and amulets
that were fashioned for Egypt's boy ruler, King Tut, in the
14th century B.C.
Alchemy was a popular preoccupation for many centuries, as
the most learned members of European, Chinese and Arab societies
searched for a way of turning base metals into gold. They
didn't succeed, of course. But alchemists did discover many
new elements in the process and laid the foundations of modern
chemistry.
The search for gold launched European explorers on some of
the most ambitious and ruthless overseas expeditions. Spanish
Conquistadors plundered and ravaged the Incan and Aztec societies
of the New World under orders from King Ferdinand to "get
gold."
Gold has been used as money for at least 3,500 years. The
shekel began circulating in the Middle East in 1500 BC. The
Chinese and the Romans followed with gold coins of their own.
The ducat appeared in Venice in the latter part of the 13th
century and soon became the most popular gold coin in the
world. Britain had its gold florins.
So
powerful was gold's lure that it often figured in myth. In
ancient Greek legend, Jason had to collect the wool of a golden
ram – the Golden Fleece — before he could claim his inheritance.
Then there was King Midas, who was granted his wish that everything
he touched would turn to gold — the Midas Touch.
In the 19th century, gold rushes opened up various parts
of the world to sudden development — including Alaska, the
Yukon, Nevada, California, South Africa and Australia.
In the 1840s, British gold sovereigns and $10 gold eagle
U.S. coins were both considered legal tender in Canada. The
first Canadian bank notes were partly backed by gold.
From 1854 until the outbreak of the First World War, Canadian
currency was on the gold standard, meaning that the value
of the Canadian dollar was fixed in terms of gold. It was
a standard that Canada and much of the industrialized world
used for a good part of the 20th century — finally abandoning
it altogether by 1971.
Gold, which had been pegged at $35 and later $42.22 an ounce,
began to soar once ownership restrictions and other controls
were removed.
Currently, most of the 2,500 tonnes of gold produced each
year is used for jewelry. But as much as 20 per cent finds
its way into such industrial applications as telecommunications
and computers, where the metal's high electrical conductivity
is prized.
Why are gold prices so volatile?
There are a million golden theories to address the rise and
fall in the market price of the precious metal. Most relate
to supply and demand. When prices rise, some analysts point
to heavy buying from central banks or hedge fund managers
or investors wanting to diversify their investments away from
perceived weak currencies.
The growing middle classes in India and China have been mentioned
as one reason why demand for gold has been growing; jewelry
is, after all, the biggest use for gold.
Traditionally, weakness in the exchange value of the U.S.
dollar has also been bullish for gold prices, and the greenback
weakened dramatically against a wide basket of currencies
from 2007 through 2009. It reached an all-time low against
the euro and a 31-year low against the loonie.
When prices fall dramatically, analysts look for signs that
central banks are selling off their gold reserves. Many countries
have been doing that. The Bank of Canada, for example, has
sold most of its gold reserves and held just $114 million
worth as of October 2009. But recently, the wider demand for
gold has offset central bank selling as the weak U.S. currency
had investors rushing into gold.
Gold has long been a traditional hedge against inflation,
and demand for gold tends to pick up when inflation does.
And some price movements may simply be on account of speculation
from short-term momentum traders who notice big price swings
in either direction and want to join what they see as a bandwagon.
Investors are left wondering whether the next climb or plunge
is just around the corner, followed by years of stagnant returns.
Should I buy gold, and if so, how can I get some?
Financial planners generally advise their clients who want
a stake in gold to keep their precious-metal holdings to a
small part of their overall portfolio – at most five or 10
per cent.
There are many ways to acquire gold. You can buy gold coins,
gold wafers or bars, or gold certificates.
Gold coins: A number of countries mint
gold coins. Britain has been producing sovereigns for centuries.
Austria, China, the U.S. and Mexico also produce gold coins.
South Africa has produced its Krugerrand coins since 1967.
Canada joined the gold rush in 1979 with its Maple Leaf
gold coin. At 99.99 per cent gold composition, it's the
purest gold coin in the world. It's available in six denominations
from 1/20th of an ounce up to one ounce. There is a small
premium charged on the gold value of the coins. Maple Leaf
coins are available from the Royal Canadian Mint, some coin
dealers and some banks. Be aware that some Canadian gold
coins are aimed at collectors and sell for considerably
more than their gold value. So, if you just want a coin
for the gold content alone, buy Gold Maple Leaf coins. No
GST is charged on gold coins if they are refined to a purity
of at least 99.50 per cent. But some provinces charge sales
tax on gold coin sales.
Gold wafers and bars: There's nothing
quite like the sensation of tossing around a 400-ounce gold
bar, much as James Bond did to lure Goldfinger into his
trap in the 1964 movie. Now, you can buy a gold bar, too.
ScotiaMocatta, the precious metals division of the Bank
of Nova Scotia, has big vaults loaded with gold bars. It
can sell you bars and wafers ranging from one ounce to 400
ounces for a small premium over the spot gold price. Most
financial institutions will also rent safety deposit boxes
to store your gold haul.
Gold certificates: You can also own gold
in certificate form. Any Canadian branch of Scotiabank can
issue paper certificates that are backed by the bank's assets.
There are no fabrication, shipping or insurance costs and
no sales tax to pay. They can be sold easily or exchanged
for physical bullion. They are made out of paper, however.
Goldfinger would not be impressed.
You can also invest in companies that mine gold. There are
dozens of gold companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Some of the biggest Canadian companies are Barrick Gold, Kinross
and Goldcorp. International gold mining giants include Newmont
Mining, AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields Ltd.
Investing in gold miners can provide more leverage than simply
investing in the precious metal itself. What does that mean?
Let's assume that it costs a gold producer $500 to produce
an ounce of gold, and gold is priced at $1,000 an ounce. If
bullion prices rise by $100 an ounce, that represents a 10
per cent price increase. But for a gold miner, that same $100-an-ounce
increase translates into a 20 per cent profit increase as
the profit per ounce jumps from $500 to $600.
In Canada, dozens of precious metal mutual funds can give
investors a stake in a variety of companies that mine gold
and other precious metals.
There are also several exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that
track either gold mining stocks or the actual price of bullion.
The iShares CDN Gold Sector Index Fund (TSX symbol: XGD) invests
in 28 Canadian and foreign gold companies. It trades like
a stock on the TSX and has a low annual management expense
fee (0.55 per cent), making it an attractive alternative to
mutual funds.
Two other ETFs track the price of gold directly. Units of
the iShares COMEX Gold Trust (TSX symbol: IGT, AMEX symbol:
IAU) and SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE symbol: GLD) track the price
of gold directly. Each unit's price represents the cost of
1/10th of an ounce of gold.