Gold:
safe haven from shrinking sterling and rising inflation By Ian Cowie | Last
updated: April 21st, 2010
Savers
worried about rising inflation, shrinking sterling and dismal
returns on bank deposits are seeking a safe haven in gold.
Bullion pays no income and, after storage costs, can be
seen to have a negative yield but it has delivered much
better returns than shares during the last decade –
and has a history of doing particularly well in election
years.
While the FTSE 100 remains below its level 10 years ago,
the sterling price of gold has soared by more than 320 per
cent to £745 at which individual investors can buy
today. That is lower than the record of £754 it hit
earlier this month but gold bugs claim there are good reasons
to expect a recovery.
Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault, said: “This
week’s inflation figures show that savers in bank
deposits have been hammered.
“With the Retail Prices Index (RPI) rising at 4.4
per cent in the year to March and Bank of England base rate
frozen at 0.5 per cent – and many bank accounts paying
less than that – cash savers have lost nearly 4p in
the pound during the last year in terms of reduced purchasing
power.
“People say that today’s low interest and inflation
rates mean things are not so bad for savers as they were
30 years ago. But the net outcome is the same.
“In 1980, base rates were at 17 per cent and the
cost of living was rising at 21 per cent. Just like in those
bad old days, cash savers today are losing 4 per cent a
year.”
Buying jewellery as an investment is a waste of money because
of massive price differences at which it can be bought and
sold. Baird & Co, Goldmadesimple and BullionVault are
among dealers seeking to meet new demand from individual
investors.
Baird will sell investment bars as small as 2.5 grams for
£77.75 each or one ounce gold Tigers in presentation
boxes at £799.50. BullionVault offers to sell gold
online at £23.16 per gram, some £744.56 per
ounce. Its dealing commission is 0.8 per cent on purchases
and sales up to $30,000 giving a 1.6 per cent offer-to-bid
spread. Storage fees are 0.12 per cent per annum.
Uncertainty created by general elections appears to boost
the sterling price of gold. During the year after the last
election in May, 2005, the bullion price increased by 62
per cent.
That was its biggest ballot year rise since Margaret Thatcher’s
first election victory in May, 1979, when the gold price
soared by 89 per cent.
While the price fell by 10 per cent and 12 per cent respectively
during the election years of 1987 and 1997, bullion’s
average one-year gain over all national ballots since 1970
has been 18 per cent.
While history is not a guide to the future, those who fear
a hung Parliament may draw some comfort from the fact that
gold even staged a modest increase of 6 per cent after the
last indecisive election in February, 1974.