Mainstream
Investors Start To Panic By Patrick A. Heller,
Market Update
March 03, 2009
Over
the past week, the U.S. government has pretty much nationalized
Citigroup and AIG, two of the nation's largest financial firms.
In forms filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission
after the close of American stock markets last Friday, Bank
of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup reported that bad loans
had overstated the value of their combined assets on their
financial statements by more than $75 billion.
As you might expect and probably have already seen in the
news coverage, U.S. stock markets hit new long-term lows already
this week.
Mainstream investors, those who typically invest in paper
assets, are now filled with fear like I have never seen in
my lifetime. Some are starting to panic. They don't understand
what is happening, or what to do about it.
This lack of understanding is not unique to mainstream investors.
By now it is obvious that the U.S. President, his top advisors,
congressional leaders and regulators have no idea what is
happening or what to do about it.
Since his inauguration, every time that President Obama or
Treasury Secretary Geithner has given a major speech, the
stock markets have fallen. Actually, since the November elections,
the Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined more than 30
percent.
Further, it seems obvious to me that most financial commentators
on television programs are equally clueless. It is sad but
almost humorous that most have been calling for a stock market
bottom almost every day since the autumn of 2007.
In times of uncertainty, investors flee to safety. In today's
market, there are three choices for safety:
U.S., Treasury debt
U.S., dollars
Gold and possibly silver
With global stock market indices dropping sharply on Monday,
the interest rate on U.S. Treasury debt declined, meaning
that the price of the debt increased. The value of the U.S.
dollar hit a three-year high. And the price of gold - fell!?
After the devastating financial news released late Friday,
the price of gold rose by more than 2 percent. When, the gold
markets opened Monday, they were hit with multiple sudden
sharp price drops, with the gold spot price down into the
mid-$920s in late U.S. markets.
Investors around the world understand that the price of gold
represents an informal report card on the value of the U.S.
dollar. When fearful investors are fleeing to safety, the
U.S. government has a huge interest in suppressing the price
of gold. What happened on March 2 is just one more textbook
example of gold price suppression.
In the past week, former Assistant Treasury Secretary Paul
Craig Roberts released an essay where he wondered when the
U.S. Treasury would stop leasing its gold reserves. In a subsequent
interview, Roberts stated that he did not have personal knowledge
of such Treasury actions. However, he was convinced that this
had happened by the growing body of publicly available information.
Even the current issue of The Economist includes a discussion
on the value of owning gold.
Last week, I projected that the price of gold would not fall
far from $1,000 before finally rising above it to stay. In
my mind, it seemed like a level just under $950 would be about
as low as it could go. I had not counted on the growing list
of financial catastrophes that are forcing the U.S. government
to bring out its whole bag of tricks to suppress the price
of gold.
The unemployment information to be released this Friday will
almost certainly be of doom-and-gloom proportions. That will
create another wave of interest in owning physical gold (and
silver) and also spur the U.S. government to use its full
spectrum of resources for holding down prices. There is a
possibility that this could be the last major manipulation
effort.
When the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally breached the
psychological 1,000 threshold to stay, it quickly rose, and
never went back below. I expect the price of gold to top $1,000
to stay by the end of April. As with the Dow Jones average,
I think the $1,000 threshold for gold will just be the base
for its next major move upward.