QE2 DWARFS GOLD SUPPLY By Jeff Clark of
Casey Research | November 5, 2010
QE2 is the latest buzzword in the investment community,
referring to the second "quantitative easing"
program the Fed is likely to dispense. While Peter examined
the impact of the Fed's policies on other countries, I want
to compare it exclusively to gold. Warning: you may be offended
at what you're about to see.
Though QE2 is not yet official, it's largely expected to
transpire. Bernanke himself stated on October 15 that "a
case could be made for a further easing in US monetary policy."
And, according to Reuters, of the twelve policymakers that
vote, the average score in favor of a second round of purchases
of US debt is "2," with "1" signifying
they're most likely to support further easing and "5"
that they're likely to oppose. Half the members are rated
with a "1," and none are rated with a "5."
The odds of QE2 proceeding are thus high.
The next question is: how much "easing" could
the Fed do? Bill Gross, at investment management firm PIMCO,
believes the Federal Reserve will resume quantitative easing
at the rate of $100 billion per month. If the Fed actually
bought Treasury bonds at that pace, it would be buying nearly
all the new debt being issued by the US Treasury. The Federal
Reserve would be financing the government's deficit.
How much effort does it take to create $100 billion per
month? It's done electronically, a few strokes on a keyboard.
In contrast, what is required to make a gold coin or bar?
It takes the best geologists in the world many years and
millions of dollars to locate an economic gold deposit;
five to ten years and sometimes billions of dollars to develop
that deposit; and then dozens of parties, from banks to
mints to dealers, assuming myriad risks before a bar or
coin gets to you and me.
Let's assume Bill Gross is correct in his projection. How
does $100 billion of money printing compare to the amount
of gold coming to market each month?
Using 2009 data, the monthly total of new
gold supply coming to market averages 9.71 million ounces,
or about $13.1 billion (at $1,350/oz gold). That means the
Federal Reserve is about to print 663% more in dollars every
month than the value of what the entire world can supply
in gold from all sources.
Monthly mine production is about 6.39 million ounces, or
$8.62 billion, per month. The Fed will be creating 1,060%
more in dollars every month than the value of what every
gold company in the world can dig up.
Net investment demand (investment minus retail sales) is
just over 3 million ounces, or $4.1 billion, per month.
And total global coin production amounts to a measly 3 million
ounces, or half a billion dollars, per month. The Fed will
be creating almost 20,000% more dollars than the value of
what all the mints in the world can create in gold coins.
While it remains to be seen how inflationary this will
all be, there's no denying it will add to the inflation
already baked in the cake. Cause has effect, and just because
the government says the Consumer Price Index was only 2.1%
through the first half of the year doesn't mean the problem
isn't building. It's intensifying, and at some point the
dam will give way.
What does the investor do with this information? Make sure
you own sufficient protection against the ramifications
of promiscuous currency debasement. The more assets you
have denominated in gold, the greater your protection. The
investable assets you hold in dollars should be viewed as
having a serious long-term risk of devaluation.
I'm buying the dips in gold because the government's efforts
to reach "an appropriate level of inflation" are
destined to work. I think inflation will ultimately go much
higher than most are prepared for - or can even imagine.
If I'm right, what's your plan of defense?
Jeff Clark is the senior editor of Casey's BIG GOLD advisory
from Casey Research. Jeff gained early experience in the
metals industry while working on his family's gold claims
in California and Arizona. Every month, he informs subscribers
of the status quo of the current gold bull market as well
as prudent precious metals-related investments, such as
large-cap gold stocks, ETFs, and physical gold.