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Gold to US$1,300 by 2014: Credit Suisse
By Eric Lam - June 24, 2010 – 8:15 am


Credit Suisse has increased its gold price forecasts by as much as 17% in the next five years, warning of recurring “waves” of financial unrest in the coming years that will drive volatility in the precious metal through repeated stimulus spending.

For 2010, the bank forecasts gold at US$1,145 an ounce, compared with US$1,025 previously, a 12% change. For 2011, new estimates of US$1,105 are 11% higher compared with US$1,000 previously, while the 2012 price revision is up the most to US$1,180, a 17% change.

By 2013, prices are expected to reach US$1,220, a 12% change, and in 2014, the estimate is for US$1,300, compared with US$1,120 previously forecast.

Certainly not quite as bullish as some analysts, such as chief economist David Rosenberg with Gluskin Sheff, with his prediction for US$3,000 gold in the next few years. Or, for that matter, Peter Schiff with Euro Pacific Capital who expects gold to hit US$5,000 to US$10,000 in the next five to 10 years.

David Davis, research analyst with Credit Suisse, said the short-term gold price is being influenced by the current macroeconomic and foreign exchange markets.

“We believe that this influence will dissolve in the short term but is likely to reappear in waves, and as such we can expect some volatility in the gold price,” he said in the report. “Our global equity strategy team believes their is an 80% chance of a renewal of quantitative easing either owing to the sovereign credit crisis or a double dip occurring in which case the current macro environment will likely reappear.”

The long-term price for gold remains at US$850, although price trends are moving upwards as mine supply runs out, he said.

Credit Suisse has also revised its methodology for price targets and valuations of gold companies, and as a result has upgraded Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle and Eldorado Gold all to Outperform with price targets of $54, $76 and $22 respectively.


Gold to US$1,300 by 2014: Credit Suiss

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