FOCUS:
Pension Funds Venture Cautiously into Commodities, Gold By Debbie Carlson
Of Kitco News | 15 October 2010, 11:44 a.m.
(Kitco News) - Investment funds have dabbled in commodities
for several years as prices boomed, but even more traditional-minded
institutions such as pension funds are now dipping their
toes in the water.
So far, these funds are allocating only a tiny portion
of their portfolios to commodities, including gold. Still,
this is enough money to contribute to rising prices, even
if supply/demand fundamentals for some commodities, such
as food items, do not always justify the rise.
This, in turn, has led to some concerns that these fund
flows have the potential to disrupt pricing on some resources,
such as food products.
Any decisions that funds make on natural resources as a
whole have ramifications for gold, since the yellow metal
is one of the commodities capturing the most attention and
investment interest lately. Gold has rallied as investors
look for tangible assets in uncertain economic times.
Gold has been the recipient of much attention as investors
believe it has reverted back to a store of wealth, especially
as it hits all-time nominal highs under concerns about fiat
currencies and future inflation. But other resources are
rallying, too, as investors seek to purchase commodities
like agriculture on ideas that a growing global population
will need to eat.
In the U.S. the biggest pension fund, the $217.5 billion
California Public Employees Retirement System, known as
Calpers, has invested in commodities for a few years now.
It has targeted 1.5% toward commodities as part of an inflation-linked
asset class, according a May 2010 investment policy, benchmarked
to the S&P GSCI Total Return Index. The $134 billion
California State Teachers Retirement System, known as Calsters,
is looking to invest in commodities. Pension funds in the
U.K., for example, have invested in gold for several years
now.
Gregory Marshall, president and CEO of Global Asset Management,
said it’s likely these funds are getting more questions
from their clients about investing in commodities like gold
as it gets more publicity. “Gold is up 20%, it’s
in its 10th year of gains. Silver is up 30%. Two years ago
you didn’t hear about gold on CNN or CNBC. You can’t
ignore it. It’s like the pit bull that has you at
the pant leg – you can’t shake free and you
can’t ignore it,” Marshall said.
Keith Brainard, research director, National Association
of State Retirement Association said while he can’t
vouch for individual funds, interest in commodities is part
of a broad movement to diversify. “Traditionally they’ve
had a model of equity and fixed income, but they’ve
moved to start to include private equity, hedge funds, and
more recently infrastructure. Also commodities,” he
said.
After the drop in most financial markets because of the
credit crisis in 2008, investors of all stripes started
to rethink what is meant by diversification and risk management.
Very loose monetary policy globally is pushing money to
seek a home everywhere, so that leads investors to think
about alternative assets.
So far pension funds globally have little exposure to gold
and other commodities. According to Shayne McGuire, head
of global research and portfolio manager of the GBI Gold
Fund for the Teacher Retirement System of Texas, a typical
pension fund holds 3% of its portfolio in commodities and
of that, 0.15% is in gold. Historically portfolio diversification
has suggested commodities only represent a very small portion
of an average plan, with 5% or less typical, so in that
respect it’s hard to say that funds are flooding the
market.
Yet on the other hand, considering the size of these funds,
even 1% or 2% is a significant amount of money for a small
market like commodities. At one point, Calsters was considering
investing $1.2 billion in commodities, but media reports
this week said the proposal has been cut to about $250 million
over three years.
McGuire has been an advocate for including gold in pension
portfolios. The Texas plan has always had some gold exposure
via mining stock holding, he said, but investments in gold
as a standalone asset were made in the past few years. That
gold allocation stands at 0.30% to 0.40%. The overall target
return for the pension fund is to achieve or exceed a time-weighted
rate of return of 8%, McGuire said.
Exchange-traded products are how most institutions are
buying commodities. For gold, the biggest by far is the
six-year-old SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which is the second-largest
ETF anywhere, dwarfed only by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF.
The Gold Trust has about $56 billion under management.
Kevin Quigg, global head of ETF Capital Markets with State
Street Global Advisors, said the concept of investing in
gold isn’t new, but what’s different today is
the amount of liquidity and having a physically backed vehicle.
Before ETFs, “it was a different marketplace,”
he said.
The size of the ETF market has in itself drawn interest
to gold, Quigg said. “With the size of the fund at
$56 billion, it’s liquid enough in the secondary market
that it works as an investment vehicle…. It’s
big enough that even funds of some size can come in (without
moving the market). Gold is now viewed as an asset class
by institutions, which shows they have confidence in the
product,” he said.
With a physically backed contract, rather than one using
futures, there’s no worry about counterparty risk
and particularly no “roll risk,” Quigg said.
The “roll risk” occurs when an investor uses
futures and has to exit a nearby or spot month contract
and buy a deferred to maintain the position. If the deferred
contract is more costly than the nearby, there is a small
loss. Traditionally commodities markets have operated in
these “carry” markets (also called contango)
to make it worthwhile to store the goods for a future date
(and thus historically making commodities an inflation hedge).
However, when immediate supplies are short the prices will
invert, where the front month contract is more expense than
the deferred, to draw goods out of storage, sometimes called
backwardation.
This roll risk is why some investment managers frown upon
commodities as having a place in an institutional portfolio,
which typically had a “buy-and-hold” mentality
and a long-range target. Yet McGuire said pension funds
have both short-term and long-term views. “For asset
classes that will always be long-term strategic assets,
there are short-term decisions regarding overweighting and
underweighting,” he said.
Do Institutions Skew Fundamentals?
Some veterans of the commodities markets view the moves
by institutions – not just pension funds themselves
– as sometimes creating shortages where none exist
and disrupting the hedging tool of the commodities markets,
said John Kleist, broker at Allendale. Rising prices make
the hedging aspect for producers a losing battle –
as an example Barrick and AngloGold had to spend money to
exit their gold hedges which in turn lifted gold prices.
Kleist said in the agriculture markets this year there
were initial worries about wheat supplies, and the futures
prices ran up. That caused importers to buy, fearing another
situation like 2008 when there were genuine supply problems.
“The spot market collapsed, but the futures market
ran up, creating an artificial shortage. The importers overbought,
but then they cancelled orders for two years out (when prices
fell),” he said.
So if pension funds, which seem to be the last large institutional
holdout to enter commodities, throw a few dollars at the
market, it could have a further price impact. If they stay,
or how long they invest is questionable. “They’ll
leave when other markets pose more potential than commodities,
but right now that’s way a teacher’s fund is
turning to food. But commodities are not an asset class,”
Kleist said. McGuire said he personally believes that pension
funds will increase their gold assets from the current low
base because of concerns over problems with sovereign debt.
McGuire also regards gold as a currency, not a commodity,
making it different than other resources.
Andy Smith, senior analyst at Prudential Bache, said some
of the claims institutions use for why they choose commodities,
specifically gold, don’t always ring true. He also
is concerned when investors from large institutions try
to justify their decisions even if the markets go against
them.
“You trying not to get cynical but it’s easy
to do. We’re $1,100 from the lows and the great midriff
of the U.S. has moved its girth toward gold. I just wish
they wouldn’t speak about it, especially when they
say things like, ‘performance doesn’t matter.’
On this planet, performance does matter, it pays the rent.
They talk about diversification, and it’s a wonderful
thing, but how can you be diversified when it’s only
1%, 2%, 3% of your portfolio? How is that going to save
you when the rest of your (portfolio) is going down the
toilet?” Smith said.
Smith added that the current investment infatuation with
gold for myriad reasons underscores the problems of the
world economic outlook. “It’s a sad indictment
of our (lives) that gold is more attractive than equities
– when it doesn’t do anything.”